ARE WE IN A "DOUBLE DIP"?

We all know the last 5+ years have been pretty brutal for San Diego home prices, and for home prices in general across the nation.  Even though we saw a surge in home prices during the Federal First Time Homebuyer Tax Incentive, how much of that surge was artificial?

GOVERNMENT INCENTIVE & INTERVENTION (uh-oh)

You'll notice in the graph below that the bottom of our San Diego market was February 2009 with a median price of $321K.  In 2010 we surged to $397K, but after the tax credit ended in June 2010 we've gone DOWN quite a bit.  It appears the tax credit made more of an articial impact on demand than expected. When you look at the graph below you'll see why we're probably already in the midst of a double dip.

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

I think we'll stabilize and stay flat through most of 2012, and then after the elections in the fall of 2012 I expect our distressed real estate market to conservatively pull out of the epic slump we've been in ONCE AND FOR ALL and begin heading up in 2013 ... hopefully on a steady, slow, stable trend UP for a long, long time. 




Keep checking this page for the current market conditions in San Diego, and of course if you have any questions give me a ring @ 858.883.2273 or shoot me an email @ troy@troynichols.com